Initial public offerings (IPOs) sharply declined after the dot-com bubble burst, never recovering to pre-bubble levels. Inversely, the funds raised through IPOs each year has been disproportionately higher than the number of IPOs per year, indicating that companies need more investment capital than ever before to compete in today’s corporate environment (Figure 1 displays this relationship).
1) The onset of SPACs as a liquidity option with a far lower cost of capital than traditional IPOs and the SEC approval of Direct Listings with capital raises. Taking these into account skews the IPO statistic a bit but probably provides a more accurate picture of what's going on.
2) One of the "why's" of the massive growth of PE/VC dry powder. Our low interest rate environment is driving traditional and non-traditional private investors to seek yield wherever possible. LPs are increasing their % of AUM allocation in PE/VC to accommodate. As you mentioned, more demand for private company stock is creating less pressure to raise from public markets.
3) Soon (maybe) liquidity will get a lot easier for private shareholders and further decrease the urgency to IPO. Check out what's going on with CartaX, NASDAQ, and other companies trying to build private stock exchanges. Also less discussed, but employees can suffer too from lack of liquidity. Products like AngelList's new Recurring Liquidity service could change this problem for the better.
4) Dual-class shares and their impact on founder control post-IPO. FB, Doordash, Snap, Palantir, Spotify, etc. are all part of the new wave of tech CEO's getting way more votes per share than you typically see (For better or for worse). Something that was maybe non-negotiable in the past might soon be a standard and change the control equation.
All great points as always Jason! US VC-backed tech exits are definitely creeping up slowly since 2014, but still far below the dot com bubble as you noted. Median equity raised at and prior to IPO is also at a ten-year high! Check our latest State of the Markets: (https://www.svb.com/globalassets/library/uploadedfiles/svb-q1-2021-state-of-the-markets-report2.pdf)
Some other themes worth noting:
1) The onset of SPACs as a liquidity option with a far lower cost of capital than traditional IPOs and the SEC approval of Direct Listings with capital raises. Taking these into account skews the IPO statistic a bit but probably provides a more accurate picture of what's going on.
2) One of the "why's" of the massive growth of PE/VC dry powder. Our low interest rate environment is driving traditional and non-traditional private investors to seek yield wherever possible. LPs are increasing their % of AUM allocation in PE/VC to accommodate. As you mentioned, more demand for private company stock is creating less pressure to raise from public markets.
3) Soon (maybe) liquidity will get a lot easier for private shareholders and further decrease the urgency to IPO. Check out what's going on with CartaX, NASDAQ, and other companies trying to build private stock exchanges. Also less discussed, but employees can suffer too from lack of liquidity. Products like AngelList's new Recurring Liquidity service could change this problem for the better.
4) Dual-class shares and their impact on founder control post-IPO. FB, Doordash, Snap, Palantir, Spotify, etc. are all part of the new wave of tech CEO's getting way more votes per share than you typically see (For better or for worse). Something that was maybe non-negotiable in the past might soon be a standard and change the control equation.
Great work!